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Gambler's Fallacy: What is it & How to Avoid it

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#casino #jackpot #gambling #entertainment
Published
04/18/2022

We've all been there. You've been playing your favorite slot machines in online casino Singapore for 30 minutes and you just can't seem to win. So you switch machines, and the very first spin on the new one pays out big.

You think to yourself, "I was due for a payout," and you keep playing that new machine because you're sure it will give you even more money. You're probably engaging in the Gambler's Fallacy.

But what is it? And more importantly, how can you avoid it? Read on to find out!

What is the Gambler's Fallacy?

The Gambler's Fallacy is a belief that if something happens more frequently than usual, it will happen less often in the future and vice versa. In other words, if you've been playing on a slot machine for a while without winning, you might think that your chances of winning on that machine are due to go up.

This is the Gambler's Fallacy in action. You're assuming that because you haven't had a win in a while, the machine is "due" for a payout.

The same goes for if you've been playing on a machine and it keeps giving you small wins. You might think that since the machine is being generous at the moment, it's time to cash out and move on to another game.

In both cases, you would be wrong. Slot machines are designed to be random, so your chances of winning are always the same, no matter how long you've been playing or what kind of recent outcomes have occurred.

Also, don't pull the lever without researching a few slot machine tips to win. Consider other people's experiences and try out different slot machines to see what suits you. After some time playing, think about if you want to stick to slots or try other games.


How to Avoid the Gambler's Fallacy

The best way to avoid the Gambler's Fallacy is to understand that random events are just that – random. No matter what has happened in the past, your chances of winning or losing are always the same.

It might help to think of it this way:

1.   Randomize your decisions
When you're making a decision, don't let your past experiences influence your present choices. If you've been playing on a machine for a while and it hasn't paid out, that doesn't mean it's "due" for a win.

Similarly, if you've just won big on a machine, don't think that means you should cash out and move on. Your chances of winning or losing are the same, no matter what has happened in the past.

2.   Understand the logical fallacy that might be affecting your thinking.
The Gambler's Fallacy is just one of many fallacies that can influence your thinking. If you're not aware of these fallacies, you might be making suboptimal decisions without even realizing it.

For example, the sunk cost fallacy is the belief that you should continue investing in something as long as you've already invested so much in it. This can lead you to stay in a losing investment for far longer than you should.

The best way to avoid fallacies like the Gambler's Fallacy is to be aware of them and make a conscious effort to think critically about your decisions.

Overall,  the Gambler's Fallacy is a dangerous way of thinking that can lead you to make suboptimal decisions. By understanding what it is and how to avoid it, you can help yourself make better choices not just in gambling but in all areas of your life!

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